Warpshire has an article 2007 / December 4th/ HTML5 and CSS3 are doomed for disaster
He brings up some of the obstacles that must be overcome. I agree that these obstacles exist and CSS3 for example alone would not be able to overcome these obstacles.
A major one Browser Adoption is s..l..o..w; without browser support any internet standard is just doomed. However on this front there is considerable competition; Apple, and Google both have browsers; Firefox and mozilla have a significant number of installations that make them a major player. These browsers all have updates for HTML5 and the users tend to have newer versions. That leaves Microsoft – IE 6 shipped with Windows XP. However, Microsoft next release of an OS will ship with IE 9, (which will support html5). All of these companies are working together for the new specifications on HTML5. Apple’s webkit, and morilla engines are open sourced in their attempts to set the standard.
Microsoft is in an interesting position, If HTML5 revolutionizes the web. It becomes a feature for people to upgrade their old XP systems. In other words it directly benefits their bottom line.
One obstacle missing from Warpshire post is that people need to want the features – xml 2.0 hit this obstacle because it demands an error message if the syntax of the page is incorrect – nobody wants to look at those messages.
I will digress to his other obstacle Other technologies are simply a better option – I think the truth is that other technologies already do some of what HTML5 does, although from a systems point of view I question if they do it better.
SVG is a potential adversary to Flash. If fully implemented it can do virtually everything Flash can do. However it alone has not been able to overcome the obstacle that Flash is already out there. Technically SVG is better than Flash in that the content interacts directly with the rest of the page – SVG does not need to be contained in a box.
What may tip the gaming industry to desire SVG and its new little brother CANVAS is true 3d rendering on the client side. Canvas hooks into Opengl • Canvas Demos • Creating pseudo 3D games with HTML 5 canvas and raycasting • When canvas grows up there will be multiplayer 3d games online. Parents who are not cool will be told directly by their children that their browser is “old”.
A big issue? I don’t know but if twitter runs better on html5?
Many people want interactive video. Alone it is not a big enough feature to overcome obstacles for a new technology. Yes it is faster and uses less computer resources CPU time for the client. More can be done on the computer because it is not running two applications (a browser and a pluggin).
The upgrade to HTML5 are not about a single feature or a single demographic. It is a bundle of features across a whole range of internet applications. IE 6 quirks mode with flash will no longer set the standard. It is more than just a group of web coders who do not like making things compatible to a non compliant browser. And, yes the drupal sports theme renders in IE6 just without rounded corners.